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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Al Iaquinta won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1411
Elo1493
Diego Sanchez

Al IaquintavsDiego SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:38

Model Prediction: Al Iaquinta wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Al Iaquinta at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Al Iaquinta has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta
Red Corner
VS
Diego Sanchez
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1411
Elo
1493
39
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18
W
vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18
L
vs Donald Cerrone · May 19
L
vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19
L
KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21
latest
Diego Sanchez
oldest →
W
vs Craig White · Sep 18
W
KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19
W
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20
L
vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricDiego Sanchez
4.06
Strikes / min
2.69
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
61%
Strike defense
56%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
1.51
74%
Takedown defense
46%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1589 vs 1516Strikes52.6 vs 35.3Takedowns0.9 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.72Form0.8 vs 0.2
Al IaquintaDiego Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Diego Sanchez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -81.6|Blue +81.6
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +581.0|Blue -581.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Al IaquintaTargetDiego Sanchez

By target zone

9
60% acc · 75%
Head
2
15% acc · 50%
1
50% acc · 8%
Body
2
100% acc · 50%
2
100% acc · 17%
Leg
0

By position

8
53% acc · 67%
Distance
4
29% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Al Iaquinta rounds
0
even
0
Diego Sanchez rounds
Round 1Al Iaquinta edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns2
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
12 / 19
Sig Strikes
4 / 15
63%
Sig Str %
26%
12 / 19
Total Strikes
4 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Sanchez4 / 154 / 150 / 00
1Al Iaquinta12 / 1912 / 190 / 00

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19