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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1411

Elo1484

Al IaquintavsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAl Iaquinta: Pressure fightervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Dan Hooker wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Hooker at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Al Iaquinta has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).
Dan Hooker has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1411

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Sanchez · Apr 17

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricDan Hooker

4.06

Strikes / min

4.82

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

61%

Strike defense

49%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.68

74%

Takedown defense

77%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Al IaquintaDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -73.0|Blue +73.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Al IaquintaTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

23% acc · 57%

Head

40% acc · 69%

64% acc · 19%

Body

54% acc · 7%

75% acc · 24%

Leg

88% acc · 23%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

42% acc · 78%

Clinch

Ground

88% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Al Iaquinta rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:14

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 2Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 116

Sig Strikes

98 / 207

30%

Sig Str %

47.3%

38 / 117

Total Strikes

104 / 213

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

2:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Hooker	38 / 63	44 / 69	0 / 1
1	Al Iaquinta	5 / 23	5 / 23	0 / 0
2	Dan Hooker	27 / 63	27 / 63	0 / 0
2	Al Iaquinta	15 / 39	16 / 40	0 / 2
3	Dan Hooker	33 / 81	33 / 81	0 / 0
3	Al Iaquinta	17 / 54	17 / 54	0 / 1

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24