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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Bobby Green won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1411
Elo1445

Al IaquintavsBobby GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Bobby Green won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:25

Model Prediction: Bobby Green wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Bobby Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bobby Green at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta
Red Corner
VS
Bobby Green
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
1411
Elo
1445
39
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Diego Sanchez · Apr 17
L
vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18
W
vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18
L
vs Donald Cerrone · May 19
L
vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19
latest
Bobby GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Thiago Moises · Oct 20
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · Aug 21
W
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Feb 22
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Feb 22
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Dec 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricBobby Green
4.06
Strikes / min
—
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
—
61%
Strike defense
—
0.63
TDs / 15 min
—
74%
Takedown defense
—
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1573 vs 1521Strikes4.1 vs 6.4Takedowns0.6 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.30Form-0.5 vs -0.1
Al IaquintaBobby Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Bobby Green(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -34.3|Blue +34.3
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +672.0|Blue -672.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Bobby Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9