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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Sam Sicilia won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Akira Corassani
Elo1359
Sam Sicilia

Akira CorassanivsSam SiciliaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · Saturday, January 24, 2015Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Sam Sicilia won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:26

Model Prediction: Akira Corassani wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Sam Sicilia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Akira Corassani at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sam Sicilia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Sam Sicilia is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Akira Corassani has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Akira Corassani has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Akira Corassani
Red Corner
VS
Sam Sicilia
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1354
Elo
1359
43
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Akira CorassaniL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Andy Ogle · Sep 12
W
vs Robert Peralta · Apr 13
W
vs Maximo Blanco · Nov 13
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Apr 14
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 14
latest
Sam SiciliaL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 14
W
vs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 15
L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15
L
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16
L
vs Gavin Tucker · Feb 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Akira CorassaniMetricSam Sicilia
3.25
Strikes / min
2.46
4.91
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
50%
Strike defense
59%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
1.45
86%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.66evenly matched on net striking-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1486Strikes25.8 vs 28.0Takedowns0.4 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.29Form-0.3 vs -0.2
Akira CorassaniSam Sicilia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Akira Corassani(6 fights)Sam Sicilia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.2|Blue +5.2
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Akira CorassaniTargetSam Sicilia

By target zone

5
23% acc · 50%
Head
6
29% acc · 60%
1
25% acc · 10%
Body
3
75% acc · 30%
4
80% acc · 40%
Leg
1
100% acc · 10%

By position

10
33% acc · 100%
Distance
7
32% acc · 70%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
67% acc · 20%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Akira Corassani rounds
0
even
1
Sam Sicilia rounds
Round 1Sam Sicilia edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
10 / 31
Sig Strikes
10 / 26
32%
Sig Str %
38%
11 / 32
Total Strikes
12 / 28
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sam Sicilia10 / 2612 / 280 / 00
1Akira Corassani10 / 3111 / 320 / 00

Akira Corassani

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6

Sam Sicilia

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12