← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

AJ Fletcher won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Elo1489

AJ FletchervsThemba GorimboUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Saturday, February 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

AJ Fletcher won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:37

Model Prediction: AJ Fletcher wins(57.5%)

Actual result: AJ Fletcher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

AJ Fletcher at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
AJ Fletcher threatens submissions; Themba Gorimbo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Themba Gorimbo has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors AJ Fletcher (52.9%).
Themba Gorimbo has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

AJ Fletcher

Red Corner

Themba Gorimbo

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1495

Elo

1489

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

170.18 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

AJ FletcherL3 streak

oldest →

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 22

vs Ange Loosa · Aug 22

SUBvs Bryan Battle · Sep 23

latest

Themba GorimboL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 24

vs Niko Price · Oct 24

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 24

vs Jeremiah Wells · Nov 25

DECvs Jonathan Micallef · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

AJ FletcherMetricThemba Gorimbo

3.36

Strikes / min

2.70

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

46%

Strike defense

51%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

4.52

33%

Takedown defense

73%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

AJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

AJ Fletcher(4 fights)Themba Gorimbo(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.2|Blue -6.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

AJ FletcherTargetThemba Gorimbo

By target zone

46% acc · 86%

Head

33% acc · 33%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 50%

33% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

14% acc · 14%

Distance

56% acc · 83%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

56% acc · 71%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

AJ Fletcher rounds

even

Themba Gorimbo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:02

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:19

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 17

Sig Strikes

6 / 10

50.5%

Sig Str %

52%

23 / 35

Total Strikes

15 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:21

Ctrl Time

2:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Themba Gorimbo	5 / 7	10 / 18	1 / 1	0
1	AJ Fletcher	5 / 14	20 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Themba Gorimbo	1 / 3	5 / 8	1 / 1	0
2	AJ Fletcher	2 / 3	3 / 4	0 / 0	1

AJ Fletcher

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Themba Gorimbo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7