Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ange Loosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1484

AJ FletchervsAnge LoosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Ange Loosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ange Loosa wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Ange Loosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ange Loosa at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ange Loosa has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors AJ Fletcher (52.9%).
Ange Loosa has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

AJ Fletcher

Red Corner

Ange Loosa

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1495

Elo

1484

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

AJ Fletcher

oldest →

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 22

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Feb 23

SUBvs Bryan Battle · Sep 23

latest

Ange LoosaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mounir Lazzez · Apr 22

vs Rhys McKee · Sep 23

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 24

KOvs Phil Rowe · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

AJ FletcherMetricAnge Loosa

3.36

Strikes / min

5.46

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

6.59

46%

Strike defense

52%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

2.53

33%

Takedown defense

83%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25evenly matched on net striking-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

AJ FletcherAnge Loosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

AJ Fletcher(4 fights)Ange Loosa(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.9|Blue -10.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

AJ FletcherTargetAnge Loosa

By target zone

45% acc · 85%

Head

47% acc · 68%

69% acc · 10%

Body

90% acc · 21%

80% acc · 5%

Leg

93% acc · 11%

By position

47% acc · 92%

Distance

50% acc · 74%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

61% acc · 9%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

88% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

AJ Fletcher rounds

even

Ange Loosa rounds

Round 1Ange Loosa edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2AJ Fletcher edged it

Sig. strikes62

Takedowns0

Control0:36

52Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Ange Loosa edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 181

Sig Strikes

129 / 233

42%

Sig Str %

57.3%

103 / 201

Total Strikes

241 / 354

0 / 4

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

5:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ange Loosa	39 / 95	45 / 103	1 / 2
1	AJ Fletcher	21 / 61	21 / 61	0 / 2
2	Ange Loosa	52 / 83	80 / 112	1 / 2
2	AJ Fletcher	62 / 109	68 / 119	0 / 1
3	Ange Loosa	38 / 55	116 / 139	0 / 0
3	AJ Fletcher	4 / 11	14 / 21	0 / 1

AJ Fletcher

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Ange Loosa

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5