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Middleweight

3 Rounds

AJ Dobson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1470

AJ DobsonvsTafon NchukwiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

AJ Dobson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAJ Dobson: Pressure fightervsTafon Nchukwi: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tafon Nchukwi wins(57.8%)

Actual result: AJ Dobson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tafon Nchukwi at -148 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

AJ Dobson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

AJ Dobson

Red Corner

Tafon Nchukwi

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1495

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

AJ DobsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jacob Malkoun · Feb 22

vs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 22

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Mar 24

latest

Tafon NchukwiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Pickett · Dec 20

vs Junyong Park · May 21

vs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 21

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Mar 22

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

AJ DobsonMetricTafon Nchukwi

4.29

Strikes / min

5.57

5.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

46%

Strike defense

54%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

0.76

65%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.02Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

AJ DobsonTafon Nchukwi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

AJ Dobson(4 fights)Tafon Nchukwi(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.5|Blue -24.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

AJ DobsonTargetTafon Nchukwi

By target zone

25% acc · 28%

Head

23% acc · 21%

67% acc · 18%

Body

80% acc · 23%

88% acc · 54%

Leg

81% acc · 57%

By position

51% acc · 91%

Distance

53% acc · 92%

40% acc · 3%

Clinch

57% acc · 8%

40% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

AJ Dobson rounds

even

Tafon Nchukwi rounds

Round 1AJ Dobson edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:13

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2AJ Dobson edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:23

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3AJ Dobson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:57

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 134

Sig Strikes

53 / 99

44.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

98 / 176

Total Strikes

59 / 106

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:33

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tafon Nchukwi	24 / 45	24 / 45	0 / 0
1	AJ Dobson	34 / 65	36 / 69	1 / 1
2	Tafon Nchukwi	26 / 48	27 / 49	0 / 0
2	AJ Dobson	28 / 51	29 / 53	0 / 1
3	Tafon Nchukwi	3 / 6	8 / 12	0 / 0
3	AJ Dobson	5 / 18	33 / 54	1 / 1

AJ Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Tafon Nchukwi

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6