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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Aisling Daly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1356

Aisling DalyvsEricka AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · Saturday, October 24, 2015Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Aisling Daly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aisling Daly wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Aisling Daly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aisling Daly at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aisling Daly has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Aisling Daly (52.9%).
Ericka Almeida has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aisling Daly

Red Corner

Ericka Almeida

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1490

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aisling Daly

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Chambers · Dec 14

vs Randa Markos · Apr 15

latest

Ericka Almeida

oldest →

vs Juliana Lima · May 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aisling DalyMetricEricka Almeida

2.92

Strikes / min

1.07

1.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

55%

Strike defense

43%

2.15

TDs / 15 min

0.50

33%

Takedown defense

37%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.52Δ 3.78 — meaningful gap-2.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aisling DalyEricka Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aisling Daly(3 fights)Ericka Almeida(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.9|Blue -134.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aisling DalyTargetEricka Almeida

By target zone

52% acc · 73%

Head

38% acc · 63%

65% acc · 22%

Body

55% acc · 32%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

22% acc · 3%

Distance

57% acc · 21%

64% acc · 24%

Clinch

52% acc · 63%

58% acc · 73%

Ground

21% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aisling Daly rounds

even

Ericka Almeida rounds

Round 1Aisling Daly edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:46

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Aisling Daly edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:41

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:10Control

Round 3Aisling Daly edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control4:43

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 105

Sig Strikes

19 / 44

54%

Sig Str %

47.3%

166 / 216

Total Strikes

57 / 91

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

11:10

Ctrl Time

3:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ericka Almeida	10 / 19	35 / 47	0 / 0
1	Aisling Daly	11 / 26	53 / 71	1 / 2
2	Ericka Almeida	3 / 5	6 / 9	1 / 1
2	Aisling Daly	20 / 33	42 / 56	1 / 2
3	Ericka Almeida	6 / 20	16 / 35	0 / 0
3	Aisling Daly	28 / 46	71 / 89	0 / 1

Aisling Daly

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights3

Ericka Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach—

Fights2