Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ailin Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1546

Elo1474

Ailin PerezvsMacy ChiassonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Ailin Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAilin Perez: WrestlervsMacy Chiasson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ailin Perez wins(88.3%)

Actual result: Ailin Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ailin Perez at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ailin Perez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ailin Perez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ailin Perez (52.9%).
Macy Chiasson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ailin Perez

Red Corner

Macy Chiasson

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+152

(40%)

1546

Elo

1474

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'11"

167.64 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ailin PerezW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ashlee Evans-Smith · Jul 23

vs Lucie Pudilova · Nov 23

vs Joselyne Edwards · Jun 24

SUBvs Daria Zhelezniakova · Sep 24

vs Karol Rosa · Jan 25

latest

Macy ChiassonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Irene Aldana · Sep 22

SUBvs Pannie Kianzad · Mar 24

KOvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jun 24

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 25

vs Yana Santos · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ailin PerezMetricMacy Chiasson

2.88

Strikes / min

3.21

1.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

56%

Strike defense

44%

4.90

TDs / 15 min

1.87

72%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30evenly matched on net striking+0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ailin PerezMacy Chiasson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ailin Perez(7 fights)Macy Chiasson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.4|Blue -72.4

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ailin PerezTargetMacy Chiasson

By target zone

74% acc · 52%

Head

25% acc · 50%

69% acc · 33%

Body

57% acc · 50%

67% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 30%

Distance

6% acc · 13%

77% acc · 37%

Clinch

100% acc · 38%

90% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ailin Perez rounds

even

Macy Chiasson rounds

Round 1Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:19

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:48Control

Round 2Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control1:56

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 3Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control4:21

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 38

Sig Strikes

8 / 23

74%

Sig Str %

54%

68 / 83

Total Strikes

41 / 74

6 / 10

TDs

0 / 2

64.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:36

Ctrl Time

3:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Macy Chiasson	4 / 5	24 / 41	0 / 0
1	Ailin Perez	6 / 7	10 / 11	2 / 2
2	Macy Chiasson	1 / 14	13 / 28	0 / 2
2	Ailin Perez	13 / 20	25 / 35	3 / 5
3	Macy Chiasson	3 / 4	4 / 5	0 / 0
3	Ailin Perez	8 / 11	33 / 37	1 / 3

Ailin Perez

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Macy Chiasson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14