Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ailin Perez won · SUB R1

Elo1546

Elo1490

Ailin PerezvsDaria ZhelezniakovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Ailin Perez won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:52

Style matchupAilin Perez: WrestlervsDaria Zhelezniakova: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Ailin Perez wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Ailin Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ailin Perez at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ailin Perez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ailin Perez has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Ailin Perez (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ailin Perez

Red Corner

Daria Zhelezniakova

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1546

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ailin PerezW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ashlee Evans-Smith · Jul 23

vs Lucie Pudilova · Nov 23

vs Joselyne Edwards · Jun 24

vs Karol Rosa · Jan 25

vs Macy Chiasson · Feb 26

latest

Daria Zhelezniakova

oldest →

vs Montserrat Rendon · Mar 24

vs Melissa Mullins · Jun 25

DECvs Melissa Croden · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ailin PerezMetricDaria Zhelezniakova

2.88

Strikes / min

4.13

1.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

56%

Strike defense

64%

4.90

TDs / 15 min

0.31

72%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ailin PerezDaria Zhelezniakova

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ailin Perez(7 fights)Daria Zhelezniakova(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.2|Blue -56.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ailin PerezTargetDaria Zhelezniakova

By target zone

71% acc · 71%

Head

40% acc · 80%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 20%

50% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 43%

Distance

36% acc · 80%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ailin Perez rounds

even

Daria Zhelezniakova rounds

Round 1Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:42

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

5 / 12

58%

Sig Str %

41%

22 / 27

Total Strikes

12 / 21

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daria Zhelezniakova	5 / 12	12 / 21	1 / 1	0
1	Ailin Perez	7 / 12	22 / 27	2 / 4	1

Ailin Perez

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Daria Zhelezniakova

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3