Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Vince Morales won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1454

Aiemann ZahabivsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Vince Morales won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAiemann Zahabi: Pressure fightervsVince Morales: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Vince Morales wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Vince Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vince Morales at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Aiemann Zahabi has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Aiemann Zahabi has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aiemann Zahabi

Red Corner

Vince Morales

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1522

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aiemann Zahabi

oldest →

vs Javid Basharat · Mar 24

vs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 24

vs Jose Aldo · May 25

vs Marlon Vera · Oct 25

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 26

latest

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aiemann ZahabiMetricVince Morales

4.54

Strikes / min

3.54

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

69%

Strike defense

54%

0.12

TDs / 15 min

0.71

83%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aiemann ZahabiVince Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aiemann Zahabi(10 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.2|Blue -68.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +385.0|Blue -385.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aiemann ZahabiTargetVince Morales

By target zone

23% acc · 50%

Head

21% acc · 53%

64% acc · 32%

Body

63% acc · 34%

83% acc · 18%

Leg

73% acc · 14%

By position

33% acc · 96%

Distance

30% acc · 98%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aiemann Zahabi rounds

even

Vince Morales rounds

Round 1Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:36

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 82

Sig Strikes

59 / 194

33.7%

Sig Str %

30.7%

29 / 83

Total Strikes

59 / 194

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vince Morales	14 / 42	14 / 42	0 / 0
1	Aiemann Zahabi	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 0
2	Vince Morales	14 / 46	14 / 46	0 / 0
2	Aiemann Zahabi	9 / 25	10 / 26	1 / 2
3	Vince Morales	31 / 106	31 / 106	0 / 0
3	Aiemann Zahabi	13 / 37	13 / 37	0 / 3

Aiemann Zahabi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11