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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Steve Erceg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1479

Steve ErcegvsOde OsbourneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Erceg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSteve Erceg: Pressure fightervsOde Osbourne: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(78.4%)

Actual result: Steve Erceg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Erceg at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ode Osbourne is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Steve Erceg has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Ode Osbourne (53.5%).
Ode Osbourne has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Erceg

Red Corner

Ode Osbourne

Blue Corner

-590

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+440

(19%)

1498

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Erceg

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26

latest

Ode Osbourne

oldest →

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Aug 23

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Sep 24

KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25

vs Alibi Idiris · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve ErcegMetricOde Osbourne

4.64

Strikes / min

2.94

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

55%

Strike defense

49%

1.13

TDs / 15 min

0.94

67%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve ErcegOde Osbourne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Erceg(9 fights)Ode Osbourne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.3|Blue -18.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve ErcegTargetOde Osbourne

By target zone

24% acc · 50%

Head

38% acc · 57%

91% acc · 50%

Body

57% acc · 11%

Leg

79% acc · 31%

By position

28% acc · 60%

Distance

43% acc · 83%

75% acc · 30%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Erceg rounds

even

Ode Osbourne rounds

Round 1Ode Osbourne edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:06

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:58

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:43

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 53

Sig Strikes

35 / 74

35.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

39 / 82

Total Strikes

47 / 89

3 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

40%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:47

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ode Osbourne	17 / 32	26 / 44	1 / 1	0
1	Steve Erceg	3 / 11	4 / 14	1 / 5	0
2	Ode Osbourne	12 / 25	15 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Steve Erceg	11 / 25	18 / 33	0 / 3	0
3	Ode Osbourne	6 / 17	6 / 17	0 / 1	0
3	Steve Erceg	6 / 17	17 / 35	2 / 2	1

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11