Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demetrious Johnson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Demetrious Johnson has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demetrious Johnson
oldest →W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18 John Moraga
oldest →L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demetrious JohnsonMetricJohn Moraga
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.77Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demetrious JohnsonJohn Moraga
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demetrious JohnsonTargetJohn Moraga
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
4
Demetrious Johnson rounds
Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:13
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns3
Control4:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control2:01
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:01Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns3
Control2:40
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns3
Control2:41
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
