Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dominick Cruz has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Dominick Cruz has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dominick Cruz
oldest →W
vs Urijah Faber · Jun 16L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22 Casey Kenney
oldest →L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20W
SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20W
vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20W
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dominick CruzMetricCasey Kenney
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.30Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dominick CruzCasey Kenney
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dominick Cruz(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +89.5|Blue -89.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +3.0|Blue -3.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dominick CruzTargetCasey Kenney
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns2
Control2:07
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
