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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Karine Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1542

Karine SilvavsDione BarbosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Karine Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarine Silva: Submission grapplervsDione Barbosa: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Karine Silva wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Karine Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karine Silva at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karine Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dione Barbosa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dione Barbosa has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dione Barbosa has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karine Silva

Red Corner

Dione Barbosa

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1495

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karine SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Aug 23

vs Ariane da Silva · Apr 24

vs Viviane Araujo · Nov 24

vs Maycee Barber · Dec 25

DECvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Apr 26

latest

Dione BarbosaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Ernesta Kareckaite · May 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jul 24

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Apr 25

DECvs Melissa Gatto · Apr 26

SUBvs Anna Melisano · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karine SilvaMetricDione Barbosa

2.24

Strikes / min

2.21

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

52%

Strike defense

64%

1.93

TDs / 15 min

2.40

26%

Takedown defense

63%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karine SilvaDione Barbosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karine Silva(8 fights)Dione Barbosa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -46.7|Blue +46.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karine SilvaTargetDione Barbosa

By target zone

22% acc · 42%

Head

18% acc · 35%

64% acc · 35%

Body

79% acc · 48%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

83% acc · 16%

By position

33% acc · 85%

Distance

33% acc · 84%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karine Silva rounds

even

Dione Barbosa rounds

Round 1Dione Barbosa edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:24

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 3Dione Barbosa edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:59

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 70

Sig Strikes

31 / 87

38%

Sig Str %

36.3%

90 / 154

Total Strikes

67 / 132

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 4

25%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:23

Ctrl Time

5:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dione Barbosa	15 / 41	19 / 47	1 / 1	1
1	Karine Silva	10 / 30	11 / 31	0 / 1	0
2	Dione Barbosa	7 / 16	23 / 34	1 / 2	0
2	Karine Silva	9 / 18	49 / 68	1 / 2	0
3	Dione Barbosa	9 / 30	25 / 51	1 / 1	0
3	Karine Silva	7 / 22	30 / 55	0 / 0	2

Karine Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Dione Barbosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7