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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Denzel Freeman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1495

Marek BujlovsDenzel FreemanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Denzel Freeman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Denzel Freeman wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Denzel Freeman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Denzel Freeman at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Denzel Freeman has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Denzel Freeman has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Denzel Freeman (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marek Bujlo

Red Corner

Denzel Freeman

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1485

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marek BujloNo prior UFC fights on record.

Denzel Freeman

oldest →

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marek BujloMetricDenzel Freeman

2.07

Strikes / min

2.45

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

37%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marek BujloDenzel Freeman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marek Bujlo(1 fights)Denzel Freeman(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.8|Blue +9.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marek BujloTargetDenzel Freeman

By target zone

14% acc · 10%

Head

44% acc · 39%

43% acc · 19%

Body

60% acc · 12%

50% acc · 71%

Leg

92% acc · 49%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

62% acc · 92%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marek Bujlo rounds

even

Denzel Freeman rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Denzel Freeman edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:28

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 80

Sig Strikes

49 / 79

38%

Sig Str %

61.3%

31 / 80

Total Strikes

49 / 79

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Denzel Freeman	13 / 22	13 / 22	0 / 0
1	Marek Bujlo	14 / 26	14 / 26	0 / 0
2	Denzel Freeman	15 / 24	15 / 24	0 / 0
2	Marek Bujlo	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 0
3	Denzel Freeman	21 / 33	21 / 33	0 / 0
3	Marek Bujlo	3 / 26	3 / 26	0 / 0

Marek Bujlo

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights1

Denzel Freeman

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights2