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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Adriano Martins won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1362
Adriano Martins
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration

Adriano MartinsvsIslam MakhachevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Adriano Martins won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:46

Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Adriano Martins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Makhachev at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Adriano Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Adriano Martins
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1362
Elo
1544
43
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adriano MartinsL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 14
W
KOvs Juan Puig · Jul 14
W
vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 15
L
vs Leonardo Santos · Oct 16
L
KOvs Kajan Johnson · Sep 17
latest
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adriano MartinsMetricIslam Makhachev
1.80
Strikes / min
2.45
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
65%
Strike defense
61%
0.83
TDs / 15 min
3.10
81%
Takedown defense
91%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.34Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1542 vs 1519Strikes12.5 vs 32.0Takedowns1.0 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.25 vs 1.00Form0.7 vs 1.0
Adriano MartinsIslam Makhachev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Adriano Martins(7 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -181.9|Blue +181.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +90.0|Blue -90.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adriano MartinsTargetIslam Makhachev

By target zone

2
33% acc · 67%
Head
2
15% acc · 50%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

2
33% acc · 67%
Distance
4
27% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Adriano Martins rounds
0
even
0
Islam Makhachev rounds
Round 1Adriano Martins edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 7
Sig Strikes
4 / 15
42%
Sig Str %
26%
3 / 7
Total Strikes
4 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Islam Makhachev4 / 154 / 150 / 00
1Adriano Martins3 / 73 / 70 / 00

Adriano Martins

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18