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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Adriano Martins won · SUB R2

Elo1362

Elo1356

Adriano MartinsvsDaron CruickshankUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Adriano Martins won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:49

Model Prediction: Daron Cruickshank wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Adriano Martins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daron Cruickshank at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daron Cruickshank is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Adriano Martins has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Adriano Martins has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Adriano Martins

Red Corner

Daron Cruickshank

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1362

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adriano MartinsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Juan Puig · Jul 14

vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 15

vs Leonardo Santos · Oct 16

KOvs Kajan Johnson · Sep 17

latest

Daron CruickshankL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adriano MartinsMetricDaron Cruickshank

1.80

Strikes / min

2.88

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

65%

Strike defense

57%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

2.04

81%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Adriano MartinsDaron Cruickshank

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Adriano Martins(7 fights)Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.7|Blue -5.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +48.4|Blue -48.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adriano MartinsTargetDaron Cruickshank

By target zone

65% acc · 69%

Head

10% acc · 13%

100% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 50%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

38% acc · 38%

By position

71% acc · 63%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Adriano Martins rounds

even

Daron Cruickshank rounds

Round 1Adriano Martins edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:48

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Adriano Martins edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:16

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 22

Sig Strikes

8 / 26

84%

Sig Str %

62.5%

38 / 45

Total Strikes

9 / 27

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daron Cruickshank	6 / 24	7 / 25	0 / 1	0
1	Adriano Martins	13 / 19	24 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Daron Cruickshank	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	0
2	Adriano Martins	3 / 3	14 / 14	1 / 1	1

Adriano Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12