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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Adrian Yanez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1521
Elo1495

Adrian YanezvsTony KelleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Adrian Yanez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:49

Style matchupAdrian Yanez: Pressure fightervsTony Kelley: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Adrian Yanez wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Adrian Yanez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adrian Yanez at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tony Kelley is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Adrian Yanez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Adrian Yanez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Adrian Yanez has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tony Kelley (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Adrian Yanez
Red Corner
VS
Tony Kelley
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
1521
Elo
1495
32
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adrian Yanez
oldest →
L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 23
W
KOvs Vinicius Salvador · May 24
L
vs Daniel Marcos · Dec 24
D
vs Ricky Simon · Mar 26
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jul 26
latest
Tony KelleyW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ali AlQaisi · Oct 20
W
KOvs Randy Costa · Dec 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adrian YanezMetricTony Kelley
5.96
Strikes / min
5.55
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
4.85
56%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1561 vs 1531Strikes6.5 vs 5.5Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.40Form1.0 vs 1.0
Adrian YanezTony Kelley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Adrian Yanez(10 fights)Tony Kelley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +26.2|Blue -26.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adrian YanezTargetTony Kelley

By target zone

29
48% acc · 83%
Head
12
41% acc · 60%
6
86% acc · 17%
Body
6
38% acc · 30%
0
Leg
2
50% acc · 10%

By position

29
48% acc · 83%
Distance
20
42% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
0% acc
5
100% acc · 14%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Adrian Yanez rounds
0
even
0
Tony Kelley rounds
Round 1Adrian Yanez edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
35 / 67
Sig Strikes
20 / 49
52%
Sig Str %
40%
36 / 68
Total Strikes
21 / 50
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tony Kelley20 / 4921 / 500 / 00
1Adrian Yanez35 / 6736 / 680 / 00

Adrian Yanez

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Tony Kelley

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3