Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Adrian Yanez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1521

Elo1436

Adrian YanezvsRandy CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, July 24, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Adrian Yanez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:11

Style matchupAdrian Yanez: Pressure fightervsRandy Costa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Randy Costa wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Adrian Yanez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Costa at +195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Adrian Yanez is a KO finisher (86% of wins). Randy Costa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Randy Costa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Adrian Yanez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Adrian Yanez has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Randy Costa (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Adrian Yanez

Red Corner

Randy Costa

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1521

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adrian Yanez

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 23

KOvs Vinicius Salvador · May 24

vs Daniel Marcos · Dec 24

vs Ricky Simon · Mar 26

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jul 26

latest

Randy CostaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Davis · Apr 19

KOvs Boston Salmon · Oct 19

KOvs Journey Newson · Sep 20

KOvs Tony Kelley · Dec 21

SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adrian YanezMetricRandy Costa

5.96

Strikes / min

6.53

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

7.58

56%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Adrian YanezRandy Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Adrian Yanez(10 fights)Randy Costa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +85.3|Blue -85.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adrian YanezTargetRandy Costa

By target zone

28% acc · 64%

Head

42% acc · 88%

32% acc · 9%

Body

83% acc · 7%

89% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

34% acc · 91%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Adrian Yanez rounds

even

Randy Costa rounds

Round 1Randy Costa edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Adrian Yanez edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 184

Sig Strikes

69 / 153

35%

Sig Str %

43%

64 / 184

Total Strikes

69 / 153

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Randy Costa	57 / 123	57 / 123	0 / 0
1	Adrian Yanez	33 / 106	33 / 106	0 / 0
2	Randy Costa	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 0
2	Adrian Yanez	31 / 78	31 / 78	0 / 0

Adrian Yanez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Randy Costa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6