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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Adrian Yanez won · KO/TKO
Elo1521
Elo1493
Gustavo Lopez

Adrian YanezvsGustavo LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · Saturday, March 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Adrian Yanez won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Adrian Yanez wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Adrian Yanez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adrian Yanez at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Adrian Yanez is a KO finisher (86% of wins). Gustavo Lopez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Adrian Yanez has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Adrian Yanez
Red Corner
VS
Gustavo Lopez
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+178
(36%)
1521
Elo
1493
32
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'5"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adrian Yanez
oldest →
L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 23
W
KOvs Vinicius Salvador · May 24
L
vs Daniel Marcos · Dec 24
D
vs Ricky Simon · Mar 26
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jul 26
latest
Gustavo Lopez
oldest →
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 20
W
SUBvs Anthony Birchak · Nov 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adrian YanezMetricGustavo Lopez
5.96
Strikes / min
2.48
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
3.87
56%
Strike defense
57%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.74
75%
Takedown defense
31%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1502Strikes4.7 vs 2.2Takedowns0.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 0.2
Adrian YanezGustavo Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Adrian Yanez(10 fights)Gustavo Lopez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +28.4|Blue -28.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adrian YanezTargetGustavo Lopez

By target zone

32
39% acc · 78%
Head
14
35% acc · 61%
8
42% acc · 20%
Body
5
71% acc · 22%
1
100% acc · 2%
Leg
4
100% acc · 17%

By position

41
40% acc · 100%
Distance
23
45% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Adrian Yanez rounds
0
even
0
Gustavo Lopez rounds
Round 1Adrian Yanez edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Adrian Yanez edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Adrian Yanez edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
41 / 103
Sig Strikes
23 / 51
47.3%
Sig Str %
42%
41 / 103
Total Strikes
23 / 51
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gustavo Lopez12 / 2912 / 290 / 00
1Adrian Yanez20 / 5420 / 540 / 00
2Gustavo Lopez10 / 1910 / 190 / 10
2Adrian Yanez17 / 4317 / 430 / 00
3Gustavo Lopez1 / 31 / 30 / 00
3Adrian Yanez4 / 64 / 60 / 00

Adrian Yanez

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Gustavo Lopez

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3