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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Marcos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1526

Adrian YanezvsDaniel MarcosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Marcos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAdrian Yanez: Pressure fightervsDaniel Marcos: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Marcos wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Daniel Marcos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Marcos at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Adrian Yanez

Red Corner

Daniel Marcos

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1521

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adrian Yanez

oldest →

KOvs Rob Font · Apr 23

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 23

KOvs Vinicius Salvador · May 24

vs Ricky Simon · Mar 26

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jul 26

latest

Daniel Marcos

oldest →

KOvs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 23

vs Davey Grant · Jul 23

vs John Castaneda · Jun 24

vs Montel Jackson · May 25

SUBvs Miles Johns · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adrian YanezMetricDaniel Marcos

5.96

Strikes / min

4.90

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

56%

Strike defense

61%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.35

75%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Adrian YanezDaniel Marcos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Adrian Yanez(10 fights)Daniel Marcos(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.6|Blue +4.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adrian YanezTargetDaniel Marcos

By target zone

37% acc · 72%

Head

54% acc · 70%

80% acc · 10%

Body

56% acc · 10%

82% acc · 18%

Leg

85% acc · 20%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Adrian Yanez rounds

even

Daniel Marcos rounds

Round 1Daniel Marcos edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:23

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Adrian Yanez edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Marcos edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:52

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 183

Sig Strikes

86 / 147

43.3%

Sig Str %

58.7%

85 / 189

Total Strikes

95 / 156

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:15

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Marcos	29 / 46	30 / 47	0 / 0
1	Adrian Yanez	24 / 55	29 / 60	0 / 0
2	Daniel Marcos	39 / 70	39 / 70	0 / 2
2	Adrian Yanez	41 / 98	41 / 98	0 / 0
3	Daniel Marcos	18 / 31	26 / 39	2 / 2
3	Adrian Yanez	14 / 30	15 / 31	0 / 1

Adrian Yanez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Daniel Marcos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6