Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
- Jordan Leavitt has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paddy Pimblett
oldest →W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26W
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26 Jordan Leavitt
oldest →W
KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23W
SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25W
vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26L
SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paddy PimblettMetricJordan Leavitt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.60evenly matched on net striking+0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paddy PimblettJordan Leavitt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +35.6|Blue -35.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paddy PimblettTargetJordan Leavitt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:01
7Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:32Control
Round 2Jordan Leavitt edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:43
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
