Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1506

Adam WieczorekvsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Adam Wieczorek wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adam Wieczorek at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Adam Wieczorek threatens submissions; Marcos Rogerio de Lima has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Adam Wieczorek has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Adam Wieczorek

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1491

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'1"

205.74 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adam WieczorekW2 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Hamilton · Nov 17

SUBvs Arjan Bhullar · Apr 18

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adam WieczorekMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

1.68

Strikes / min

3.70

1.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

48%

Strike defense

51%

0.41

TDs / 15 min

1.40

58%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Adam WieczorekMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Adam Wieczorek(3 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.8|Blue +14.8

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -357.0|Blue +357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adam WieczorekTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

11% acc · 43%

Head

38% acc · 64%

33% acc · 29%

Body

50% acc · 7%

50% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

19% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 57%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

Ground

47% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Adam Wieczorek rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control1:01

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:16Control

Round 2Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:13

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 38

Sig Strikes

28 / 59

13.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

31 / 65

Total Strikes

70 / 112

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 5

50%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:14

Ctrl Time

8:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	7 / 15	31 / 47	1 / 1
1	Adam Wieczorek	0 / 4	1 / 5	1 / 1
2	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	15 / 26	21 / 33	0 / 2
2	Adam Wieczorek	4 / 20	7 / 23	0 / 0
3	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	6 / 18	18 / 32	2 / 2
3	Adam Wieczorek	3 / 14	23 / 37	0 / 1

Adam Wieczorek

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights3

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17