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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mike Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1369

Elo1408

Adam MilsteadvsMike RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Mike Rodriguez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:59

Style matchupAdam Milstead: StrikervsMike Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Mike Rodriguez wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Mike Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Rodriguez at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Rodriguez is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Adam Milstead has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Adam Milstead has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
Mike Rodriguez has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Adam Milstead

Red Corner

Mike Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1369

Elo

1408

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adam Milstead

oldest →

KOvs Chris de la Rocha · May 16

vs Jordan Johnson · Mar 18

latest

Mike RodriguezL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Da Un Jung · Dec 19

KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Aug 20

SUBvs Ed Herman · Sep 20

SUBvs Danilo Marques · Feb 21

vs Tafon Nchukwi · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adam MilsteadMetricMike Rodriguez

3.85

Strikes / min

4.35

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

43%

Strike defense

41%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

64%

Takedown defense

37%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Adam MilsteadMike Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Adam Milstead(3 fights)Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.4|Blue +38.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adam MilsteadTargetMike Rodriguez

By target zone

31% acc · 50%

Head

83% acc · 71%

100% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 23%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

45% acc · 90%

Distance

70% acc · 46%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Adam Milstead rounds

even

Mike Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Mike Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:51Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 21

Sig Strikes

35 / 42

47%

Sig Str %

83%

22 / 34

Total Strikes

44 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Rodriguez	35 / 42	44 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Adam Milstead	10 / 21	22 / 34	0 / 0	0

Adam Milstead

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Mike Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights7