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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Ty Miller won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1475
Elo1520
Ty Miller

Adam FugittvsTy MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ty Miller won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupAdam Fugitt: Pressure fightervsTy Miller: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Ty Miller wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Ty Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ty Miller at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ty Miller is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Adam Fugitt has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Ty Miller has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ty Miller has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Adam Fugitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Adam Fugitt
Red Corner
VS
Ty Miller
Blue Corner
+330
(23%)
Vegas Odds
-420
(81%)
1475
Elo
1520
37
Age
26
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adam Fugitt
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Jul 22
W
KOvs Yusaku Kinoshita · Feb 23
L
SUBvs Mike Malott · Jun 23
W
vs Josh Quinlan · Jun 24
L
KOvs Islam Dulatov · Jul 25
latest
Ty MillerNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adam FugittMetricTy Miller
4.88
Strikes / min
7.16
5.33
Strikes absorbed / min
4.65
51%
Strike defense
64%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.45Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap+2.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes4.9 vs 7.2Takedowns1.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs 0.0
Adam FugittTy Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Adam Fugitt(6 fights)Ty Miller(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -44.8|Blue +44.8
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adam FugittTargetTy Miller

By target zone

10
24% acc · 28%
Head
55
48% acc · 93%
21
81% acc · 58%
Body
4
67% acc · 7%
5
100% acc · 14%
Leg
0

By position

30
45% acc · 83%
Distance
55
48% acc · 93%
6
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 5%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Adam Fugitt rounds
0
even
1
Ty Miller rounds
Round 1Ty Miller edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
59Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
36 / 73
Sig Strikes
59 / 121
49%
Sig Str %
48%
39 / 76
Total Strikes
65 / 129
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ty Miller59 / 12165 / 1290 / 00
1Adam Fugitt36 / 7339 / 760 / 20

Adam Fugitt

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6

Ty Miller

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights1