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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Islam Dulatov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1475
Elo1515
Islam Dulatov editorial illustration

Adam FugittvsIslam DulatovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Islam Dulatov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Style matchupAdam Fugitt: Pressure fightervsIslam Dulatov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Islam Dulatov wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Islam Dulatov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Islam Dulatov at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Dulatov is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Adam Fugitt has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Islam Dulatov has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Adam Fugitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Adam Fugitt
Red Corner
VS
Islam Dulatov
Blue Corner
+320
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-460
(82%)
1475
Elo
1515
37
Age
27
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Adam Fugitt
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Jul 22
W
KOvs Yusaku Kinoshita · Feb 23
L
SUBvs Mike Malott · Jun 23
W
vs Josh Quinlan · Jun 24
L
KOvs Ty Miller · Jan 26
latest
Islam DulatovNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Adam FugittMetricIslam Dulatov
4.88
Strikes / min
8.78
5.33
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
51%
Strike defense
50%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
2.20
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.45Δ 4.99 — meaningful gap+4.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1500Strikes4.9 vs 8.8Takedowns1.6 vs 2.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs 0.0
Adam FugittIslam Dulatov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Adam Fugitt(6 fights)Islam Dulatov(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -39.6|Blue +39.6
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Adam FugittTargetIslam Dulatov

By target zone

5
31% acc · 36%
Head
17
46% acc · 81%
2
50% acc · 14%
Body
3
100% acc · 14%
7
100% acc · 50%
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

13
57% acc · 93%
Distance
16
46% acc · 76%
1
25% acc · 7%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 10%
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Adam Fugitt rounds
0
even
1
Islam Dulatov rounds
Round 1Islam Dulatov edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:59
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
14 / 27
Sig Strikes
21 / 41
51%
Sig Str %
51%
16 / 29
Total Strikes
23 / 44
0 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:59
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Islam Dulatov21 / 4123 / 440 / 00
1Adam Fugitt14 / 2716 / 290 / 30

Adam Fugitt

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6

Islam Dulatov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights1