Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stewart Nicoll enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jesus Aguilar has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jesus Aguilar has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stewart NicollL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Apr 26L
DECvs Alden Coria · Jul 26 Jesus Aguilar
oldest →W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stewart NicollMetricJesus Aguilar
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.21Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Stewart NicollJesus Aguilar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stewart Nicoll(4 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -96.2|Blue +96.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.4|Blue -49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Stewart NicollTargetJesus Aguilar
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Stewart Nicoll edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control2:04
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
