Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- John Moraga has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ashkan Mokhtarian (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Moraga
oldest →L
DECvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 16L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18 Ashkan Mokhtarian
oldest →L
KOvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MoragaMetricAshkan Mokhtarian
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.02Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap-1.71
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John MoragaAshkan Mokhtarian
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Moraga(10 fights)Ashkan Mokhtarian(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +128.5|Blue -128.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.2|Blue +48.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John MoragaTargetAshkan Mokhtarian
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Ashkan Mokhtarian rounds
Round 1John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control1:43
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:49Control
Round 2John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:50
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control4:13
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
