UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA
KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:56
Pre-fight pick: Alessandro Costa
If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick
+$25 profit
$125 total returned
Model Prediction: Alessandro Costa wins(51.8%)
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
| Round | Fighter | Sig Str | Total Str | TD | Sub |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stewart Nicoll | 27 / 59 | 27 / 59 | 0 / 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 20 / 46 | 20 / 46 | 0 / 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Stewart Nicoll | 20 / 40 | 20 / 40 | 0 / 4 | 0 |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 23 / 43 | 27 / 51 | 2 / 3 | 0 |
Market-implied probability
Alessandro Costa 76%
Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.
$100 bet returns
76% market-implied · model 56% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941
🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten
