Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Tavares has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Salas (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Tavares
oldest →L
KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 13W
SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14L
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16 Justin SalasL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14L
KOvs Jason Saggo · Mar 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago TavaresMetricJustin Salas
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago TavaresJustin Salas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Justin Salas(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +134.1|Blue -134.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +189.0|Blue -189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago TavaresTargetJustin Salas
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:17
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
