Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Daniel RodriguezW3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22L
KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25W
vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricDaniel Rodriguez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.13Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+1.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kelvin GastelumDaniel Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -28.8|Blue +28.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kelvin GastelumTargetDaniel Rodriguez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:05
46Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns2
Control0:25
53Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns2
Control2:17
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
