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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Abus Magomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1489

Abus MagomedovvsWarlley AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Abus Magomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAbus Magomedov: WrestlervsWarlley Alves: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Abus Magomedov wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Abus Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Abus Magomedov has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Abus Magomedov has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Abus Magomedov

Red Corner

Warlley Alves

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1528

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abus Magomedov

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Nov 23

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Oct 24

vs Michel Pereira · Apr 25

SUBvs Joe Pyfer · Oct 25

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Jun 26

latest

Warlley AlvesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Brown · Nov 19

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abus MagomedovMetricWarlley Alves

3.07

Strikes / min

3.04

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

55%

Strike defense

50%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

1.22

100%

Takedown defense

62%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abus MagomedovWarlley Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abus Magomedov(8 fights)Warlley Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.8|Blue -38.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abus MagomedovTargetWarlley Alves

By target zone

47% acc · 68%

Head

27% acc · 44%

64% acc · 32%

Body

100% acc · 25%

0% acc

Leg

63% acc · 31%

By position

33% acc · 41%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

0% acc

73% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abus Magomedov rounds

even

Warlley Alves rounds

Round 1Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control3:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control4:15

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:11

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 44

Sig Strikes

16 / 38

51%

Sig Str %

48.7%

98 / 168

Total Strikes

17 / 39

6 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

88.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:56

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Warlley Alves	8 / 24	8 / 24	0 / 0
1	Abus Magomedov	9 / 20	30 / 57	3 / 3
2	Warlley Alves	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0
2	Abus Magomedov	8 / 15	48 / 76	1 / 1
3	Warlley Alves	5 / 7	6 / 8	0 / 0
3	Abus Magomedov	5 / 9	20 / 35	2 / 3

Abus Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights8

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16