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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joe Pyfer won · SUB R2

Elo1528

Elo1553

Abus MagomedovvsJoe PyferUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Pyfer won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:46

Style matchupAbus Magomedov: WrestlervsJoe Pyfer: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joe Pyfer wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Joe Pyfer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Pyfer at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abus Magomedov enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Joe Pyfer enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Abus Magomedov has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Abus Magomedov

Red Corner

Joe Pyfer

Blue Corner

+172

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1528

Elo

1553

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abus MagomedovW4 streak

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Nov 23

vs Warlley Alves · May 24

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Oct 24

vs Michel Pereira · Apr 25

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Jun 26

latest

Joe PyferW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Oct 23

vs Jack Hermansson · Feb 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 24

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 25

KOvs Israel Adesanya · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abus MagomedovMetricJoe Pyfer

3.07

Strikes / min

3.52

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

55%

Strike defense

52%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

1.45

100%

Takedown defense

62%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abus MagomedovJoe Pyfer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abus Magomedov(8 fights)Joe Pyfer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.1|Blue +25.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abus MagomedovTargetJoe Pyfer

By target zone

86% acc · 55%

Head

60% acc · 100%

100% acc · 45%

Body

Leg

By position

75% acc · 27%

Distance

50% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 73%

Ground

75% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abus Magomedov rounds

even

Joe Pyfer rounds

Round 1Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:36

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Joe Pyfer edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:32Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 12

Sig Strikes

6 / 10

91%

Sig Str %

52%

18 / 21

Total Strikes

13 / 18

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

2:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Pyfer	1 / 3	2 / 5	0 / 4	0
1	Abus Magomedov	11 / 12	16 / 19	1 / 1	1
2	Joe Pyfer	5 / 7	11 / 13	0 / 0	2
2	Abus Magomedov	0 / 0	2 / 2	0 / 0	0

Abus Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights8

Joe Pyfer

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8