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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Abus Magomedov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1528

Elo1486

Abus MagomedovvsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, September 3, 2022Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Abus Magomedov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:19

Style matchupAbus Magomedov: WrestlervsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dustin Stoltzfus wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Abus Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Stoltzfus at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abus Magomedov has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Abus Magomedov

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1528

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abus Magomedov

oldest →

vs Warlley Alves · May 24

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Oct 24

vs Michel Pereira · Apr 25

SUBvs Joe Pyfer · Oct 25

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Jun 26

latest

Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abus MagomedovMetricDustin Stoltzfus

3.07

Strikes / min

3.30

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

55%

Strike defense

47%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

2.08

100%

Takedown defense

46%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abus MagomedovDustin Stoltzfus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abus Magomedov(8 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.4|Blue -42.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abus MagomedovTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

100% acc · 86%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 14%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

100% acc · 43%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abus Magomedov rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 7

Sig Strikes

0 / 2

100%

Sig Str %

7 / 7

Total Strikes

0 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Abus Magomedov	7 / 7	7 / 7	0 / 0	0

Abus Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights8

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10