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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Abubakar Vagaev won · Decision R3

Elo1523

Elo1460

Abubakar VagaevvsSaygid IzagakhmaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Abubakar Vagaev won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Abubakar Vagaev

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Abubakar Vagaev at -239 American odds · hypothetical only

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Saygid Izagakhmaev has 58pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Saygid Izagakhmaev has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Abubakar Vagaev

Red Corner

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Blue Corner

-239

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1523

Elo

1460

Age

N/A

Stance

N/A

Height

6'0"

N/A

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abubakar VagaevNo prior UFC fights on record.

Saygid Izagakhmaev

oldest →

vs Nicolas Dalby · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abubakar VagaevMetricSaygid Izagakhmaev

0.00

Strikes / min

1.33

0.00

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

4.00

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abubakar Vagaev(1 fights)Saygid Izagakhmaev(2 fights)

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abubakar VagaevTargetSaygid Izagakhmaev

By target zone

31% acc · 59%

Head

25% acc · 48%

54% acc · 26%

Body

78% acc · 21%

80% acc · 15%

Leg

91% acc · 30%

By position

31% acc · 67%

Distance

33% acc · 70%

78% acc · 26%

Clinch

73% acc · 24%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abubakar Vagaev rounds

even

Saygid Izagakhmaev rounds

Round 1Abubakar Vagaev edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control4:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Abubakar Vagaev edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control2:07

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Saygid Izagakhmaev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:32

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 70

Sig Strikes

33 / 83

38.3%

Sig Str %

43.7%

91 / 138

Total Strikes

73 / 124

4 / 10

TDs

2 / 7

33.3%

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

7:46

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Saygid Izagakhmaev	7 / 12	26 / 31	0 / 1	0
1	Abubakar Vagaev	3 / 6	30 / 35	2 / 4	0
2	Saygid Izagakhmaev	13 / 37	25 / 49	1 / 3	0
2	Abubakar Vagaev	20 / 45	36 / 61	0 / 2	0
3	Saygid Izagakhmaev	13 / 34	22 / 44	1 / 3	3
3	Abubakar Vagaev	4 / 19	25 / 42	2 / 4	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Abubakar Vagaev

Odds

-239

Market-implied probability

Abubakar Vagaev 68%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Abubakar Vagaev (model pick · research)$142

Saygid Izagakhmaev$295

68% market-implied · model 50% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 19, 2026, 4:16 AM UTC · never rewritten

Abubakar Vagaev

Stance—

Height—

Reach—

Fights2

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Stance—

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2