← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Abubakar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1438

Abubakar NurmagomedovvsGadzhi OmargadzhievUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Abubakar Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Abubakar Nurmagomedov wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Abubakar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abubakar Nurmagomedov at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1497

Elo

1438

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

oldest →

SUBvs David Zawada · Nov 19

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 21

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 23

latest

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abubakar NurmagomedovMetricGadzhi Omargadzhiev

2.78

Strikes / min

1.80

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.20

65%

Strike defense

39%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

1.35

88%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abubakar NurmagomedovGadzhi Omargadzhiev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abubakar Nurmagomedov(4 fights)Gadzhi Omargadzhiev(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.0|Blue -59.0

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +385.0|Blue -385.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abubakar NurmagomedovTargetGadzhi Omargadzhiev

By target zone

53% acc · 73%

Head

32% acc · 58%

83% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 34%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

59% acc · 90%

Distance

31% acc · 66%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

86% acc · 32%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

25% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev rounds

Round 1Gadzhi Omargadzhiev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:57

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:51

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 67

Sig Strikes

38 / 99

52%

Sig Str %

41.3%

76 / 104

Total Strikes

79 / 142

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 7

16.7%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

7:55

Ctrl Time

1:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gadzhi Omargadzhiev	13 / 25	36 / 49	1 / 2
1	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	7 / 14	33 / 40	0 / 1
2	Gadzhi Omargadzhiev	9 / 21	23 / 35	0 / 2
2	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	5 / 15	13 / 24	1 / 2
3	Gadzhi Omargadzhiev	16 / 53	20 / 58	0 / 3
3	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	28 / 38	30 / 40	0 / 1

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2