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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1488

Abubakar NurmagomedovvsElizeu Zaleski dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAbubakar Nurmagomedov: Well-roundedvsElizeu Zaleski dos Santos: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at +102 American odds

+$102 profit

$202 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1497

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abubakar NurmagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs David Zawada · Nov 19

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 21

vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev · Oct 22

latest

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Benoit Saint Denis · Oct 21

vs Randy Brown · Jun 24

KOvs Zachary Scroggin · Nov 24

KOvs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 25

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abubakar NurmagomedovMetricElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

2.78

Strikes / min

4.16

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

65%

Strike defense

55%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.79

88%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abubakar NurmagomedovElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abubakar Nurmagomedov(4 fights)Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.8|Blue -8.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -357.0|Blue +357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abubakar NurmagomedovTargetElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

By target zone

35% acc · 45%

Head

21% acc · 38%

86% acc · 21%

Body

59% acc · 31%

100% acc · 34%

Leg

81% acc · 31%

By position

48% acc · 79%

Distance

31% acc · 64%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

58% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos rounds

Round 1Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:39

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:20

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:17

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 54

Sig Strikes

42 / 113

53.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

48 / 76

Total Strikes

50 / 132

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 2

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:16

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	10 / 34	10 / 37	0 / 1
1	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	12 / 16	15 / 20	0 / 1
2	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	14 / 32	19 / 42	0 / 0
2	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	5 / 16	20 / 33	1 / 1
3	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	18 / 47	21 / 53	0 / 1
3	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	12 / 22	13 / 23	0 / 6

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights15