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Welterweight

3 Rounds

David Zawada won · SUB R1

Elo1497

Elo1407

Abubakar NurmagomedovvsDavid ZawadaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · Saturday, November 9, 2019Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

David Zawada won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:50

Style matchupAbubakar Nurmagomedov: Well-roundedvsDavid Zawada: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: David Zawada wins(65.0%)

Actual result: David Zawada wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Zawada at +225 American odds

+$225 profit

$325 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Zawada enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
David Zawada threatens submissions; Abubakar Nurmagomedov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

David Zawada

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1497

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

oldest →

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 21

vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev · Oct 22

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 23

latest

David ZawadaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Roberts · Jul 18

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 18

vs Ramazan Emeev · Jan 21

vs Alex Morono · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abubakar NurmagomedovMetricDavid Zawada

2.78

Strikes / min

3.84

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.54

65%

Strike defense

55%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.97

88%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abubakar NurmagomedovDavid Zawada

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abubakar Nurmagomedov(4 fights)David Zawada(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.3|Blue -90.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.8|Blue -48.8

Grappler Score

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abubakar NurmagomedovTargetDavid Zawada

By target zone

38% acc · 75%

Head

0% acc

Body

33% acc · 50%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

18% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

David Zawada rounds

Round 1Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:50

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

2 / 11

44%

Sig Str %

18%

22 / 34

Total Strikes

25 / 34

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Zawada	2 / 11	25 / 34	0 / 0	2
1	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	4 / 9	22 / 34	1 / 1	0

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

David Zawada

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5