Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sedriques Dumas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1467

Abu AzaitarvsSedriques DumasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Sedriques Dumas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sedriques Dumas wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Sedriques Dumas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sedriques Dumas at -238 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sedriques Dumas enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Abu Azaitar

Red Corner

Sedriques Dumas

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-238

(70%)

1480

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abu Azaitar

oldest →

vs Vitor Miranda · Jul 18

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 21

latest

Sedriques DumasL4 streak

oldest →

vs Denis Tiuliulin · Aug 24

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 25

vs Zach Reese · Sep 25

SUBvs Donte Johnson · Nov 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abu AzaitarMetricSedriques Dumas

4.38

Strikes / min

1.97

4.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

51%

Strike defense

53%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.30

42%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abu AzaitarSedriques Dumas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abu Azaitar(3 fights)Sedriques Dumas(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.2|Blue -13.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +819.0|Blue -819.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abu AzaitarTargetSedriques Dumas

By target zone

27% acc · 51%

Head

24% acc · 32%

72% acc · 32%

Body

45% acc · 15%

70% acc · 17%

Leg

78% acc · 53%

By position

34% acc · 76%

Distance

41% acc · 91%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

70% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abu Azaitar rounds

even

Sedriques Dumas rounds

Round 1Sedriques Dumas edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:09

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:10Control

Round 2Abu Azaitar edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:23

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 106

Sig Strikes

34 / 79

43%

Sig Str %

51%

87 / 153

Total Strikes

72 / 117

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

4:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sedriques Dumas	5 / 7	43 / 45	1 / 1
1	Abu Azaitar	5 / 9	50 / 55	1 / 1
2	Sedriques Dumas	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0
2	Abu Azaitar	20 / 50	21 / 51	1 / 2
3	Sedriques Dumas	15 / 43	15 / 43	0 / 1
3	Abu Azaitar	16 / 47	16 / 47	0 / 1

Abu Azaitar

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Sedriques Dumas

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights9