Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Sicilia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Aaron Phillips enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sam Sicilia has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Sam Sicilia has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Aaron Phillips (53.5%).
- Aaron Phillips has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam SiciliaL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Akira Corassani · Jan 15W
vs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 15L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15L
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16L
vs Gavin Tucker · Feb 17 Aaron PhillipsL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Jack Shore · Jul 20L
vs Gaston Bolanos · Apr 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam SiciliaMetricAaron Phillips
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.09Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-2.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sam SiciliaAaron Phillips
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Sicilia(10 fights)Aaron Phillips(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -96.9|Blue +96.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sam SiciliaTargetAaron Phillips
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sam Sicilia edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control2:14
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Sam Sicilia edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control3:31
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:05Control
Round 3Sam Sicilia edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns3
Control4:27
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
