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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Abel Trujillo won · SUB R1
Elo1363
Abel Trujillo
Elo1356

Abel TrujillovsTony SimsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Abel Trujillo won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:18

Model Prediction: Abel Trujillo wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Abel Trujillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abel Trujillo at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Tony Sims (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Abel Trujillo
Red Corner
VS
Tony Sims
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1363
Elo
1356
42
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abel TrujilloL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Dec 14
W
vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15
W
vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16
L
SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17
L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 17
latest
Tony Sims
oldest →
W
KOvs Steve Montgomery · Jun 15
L
vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Aug 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abel TrujilloMetricTony Sims
2.65
Strikes / min
1.81
2.31
Strikes absorbed / min
0.76
59%
Strike defense
65%
2.18
TDs / 15 min
0.71
40%
Takedown defense
50%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.34evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1543 vs 1500Strikes27.7 vs 16.5Takedowns1.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.29 vs 0.50Form0.5 vs -0.1
Abel TrujilloTony Sims

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Abel Trujillo(10 fights)Tony Sims(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.1|Blue -7.1
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -76.0|Blue +76.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abel TrujilloTargetTony Sims

By target zone

2
25% acc · 50%
Head
5
42% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 50%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

3
30% acc · 75%
Distance
5
42% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 25%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Abel Trujillo rounds
0
even
1
Tony Sims rounds
Round 1Tony Sims edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:17
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 11
Sig Strikes
5 / 12
36%
Sig Str %
41%
4 / 11
Total Strikes
5 / 12
0 / 2
TDs
1 / 1
0%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:17
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tony Sims5 / 125 / 121 / 10
1Abel Trujillo4 / 114 / 110 / 21

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Tony Sims

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3