← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Abel Trujillo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1363

Elo1353

Abel TrujillovsRoger BowlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Abel Trujillo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:35

Style matchupAbel Trujillo: WrestlervsRoger Bowling: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Abel Trujillo wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Abel Trujillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abel Trujillo at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abel Trujillo is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Roger Bowling has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Abel Trujillo

Red Corner

Roger Bowling

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1363

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abel TrujilloL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15

SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16

vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16

SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17

vs John Makdessi · Dec 17

latest

Roger Bowling

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Njokuani · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abel TrujilloMetricRoger Bowling

2.65

Strikes / min

3.90

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

59%

Strike defense

51%

2.18

TDs / 15 min

3.09

40%

Takedown defense

27%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abel TrujilloRoger Bowling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abel Trujillo(10 fights)Roger Bowling(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.4|Blue -10.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abel TrujilloTargetRoger Bowling

By target zone

60% acc · 67%

Head

9% acc · 22%

85% acc · 26%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

60% acc · 67%

By position

45% acc · 35%

Distance

23% acc · 78%

92% acc · 26%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

89% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abel Trujillo rounds

even

Roger Bowling rounds

Round 1Abel Trujillo edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns3

Control1:07

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Abel Trujillo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:05

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 64

Sig Strikes

9 / 33

65%

Sig Str %

60%

48 / 69

Total Strikes

16 / 41

5 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

87.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roger Bowling	6 / 30	9 / 34	0 / 1
1	Abel Trujillo	33 / 48	36 / 51	3 / 4
2	Roger Bowling	3 / 3	7 / 7	0 / 0
2	Abel Trujillo	10 / 16	12 / 18	2 / 2

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Roger Bowling

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2