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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Abel Trujillo won · U-DEC R3
Elo1363
Abel Trujillo
Elo1491

Abel TrujillovsJordan RinaldiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Abel Trujillo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAbel Trujillo: WrestlervsJordan Rinaldi: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Abel Trujillo wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Abel Trujillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abel Trujillo at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jordan Rinaldi threatens submissions; Abel Trujillo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Abel Trujillo has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Abel Trujillo
Red Corner
VS
Jordan Rinaldi
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1363
Elo
1491
42
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abel TrujilloL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Dec 14
W
vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15
W
SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16
L
SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17
L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 17
latest
Jordan Rinaldi
oldest →
W
SUBvs Alvaro Herrera · Aug 17
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 18
W
vs Jason Knight · Nov 18
L
vs Arnold Allen · Mar 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abel TrujilloMetricJordan Rinaldi
2.65
Strikes / min
1.56
2.31
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
59%
Strike defense
59%
2.18
TDs / 15 min
1.45
40%
Takedown defense
20%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.34Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1559 vs 1500Strikes24.8 vs —Takedowns1.3 vs —Sub Atts0.38 vs —Form0.7 vs 0.0
Abel TrujilloJordan Rinaldi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Abel Trujillo(10 fights)Jordan Rinaldi(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -128.4|Blue +128.4
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abel TrujilloTargetJordan Rinaldi

By target zone

29
40% acc · 83%
Head
14
29% acc · 78%
6
75% acc · 17%
Body
2
40% acc · 11%
0
Leg
2
50% acc · 11%

By position

25
40% acc · 71%
Distance
16
30% acc · 89%
4
57% acc · 11%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 6%
6
60% acc · 17%
Ground
1
100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Abel Trujillo rounds
0
even
1
Jordan Rinaldi rounds
Round 1Abel Trujillo edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:43
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Jordan Rinaldi edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control1:07
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:03Control
Round 3Abel Trujillo edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control1:15
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
35 / 80
Sig Strikes
18 / 58
37.7%
Sig Str %
33.7%
57 / 102
Total Strikes
43 / 84
3 / 3
TDs
2 / 7
100%
TD %
41.7%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
4:05
Ctrl Time
3:52

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jordan Rinaldi6 / 299 / 320 / 20
1Abel Trujillo7 / 2213 / 281 / 10
2Jordan Rinaldi2 / 523 / 271 / 11
2Abel Trujillo3 / 106 / 131 / 10
3Jordan Rinaldi10 / 2411 / 251 / 40
3Abel Trujillo25 / 4838 / 611 / 10

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Jordan Rinaldi

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5