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Lightweight

3 Rounds

James Vick won · SUB R3

Elo1363

Elo1377

Abel TrujillovsJames VickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, February 4, 2017Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

James Vick won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:49

Style matchupAbel Trujillo: WrestlervsJames Vick: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: James Vick wins(62.0%)

Actual result: James Vick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Vick at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Vick enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Abel Trujillo is a KO finisher (50% of wins). James Vick has lost 80% of fights by KO.
James Vick has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
James Vick has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Abel Trujillo

Red Corner

James Vick

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1363

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abel Trujillo

oldest →

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Dec 14

vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15

SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16

vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16

vs John Makdessi · Dec 17

latest

James VickL4 streak

oldest →

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Aug 18

vs Paul Felder · Feb 19

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19

KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abel TrujilloMetricJames Vick

2.65

Strikes / min

4.13

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

59%

Strike defense

60%

2.18

TDs / 15 min

0.26

40%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abel TrujilloJames Vick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abel Trujillo(10 fights)James Vick(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.8|Blue +13.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abel TrujilloTargetJames Vick

By target zone

30% acc · 82%

Head

25% acc · 52%

50% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 32%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

34% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 84%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abel Trujillo rounds

even

James Vick rounds

Round 1Abel Trujillo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:48

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2James Vick edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:28

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 33

Sig Strikes

25 / 67

50.7%

Sig Str %

35.3%

14 / 36

Total Strikes

29 / 71

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

16.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:16

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Vick	4 / 24	6 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Abel Trujillo	3 / 12	5 / 14	1 / 2	0
2	James Vick	19 / 38	19 / 38	1 / 2	2
2	Abel Trujillo	5 / 18	6 / 19	0 / 2	0
3	James Vick	2 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 0	1
3	Abel Trujillo	3 / 3	3 / 3	0 / 1	0

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

James Vick

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14