Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev won · SUB R1

Elo1564

Elo1436

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevvsRafael CerqueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:33

Model Prediction: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev wins(93.9%)

Actual result: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev at -1600 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Cerqueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Red Corner

Rafael Cerqueira

Blue Corner

-1600

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+900

(10%)

1564

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendson Ribeiro · Apr 26

KOvs Julius Walker · Jun 26

latest

Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ibo Aslan · Oct 24

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 25

vs Julius Walker · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevMetricRafael Cerqueira

7.40

Strikes / min

1.56

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

5.05

57%

Strike defense

36%

11.49

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

36%

7.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+5.10Δ 8.59 — meaningful gap-3.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevRafael Cerqueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev(3 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.3|Blue -128.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevTargetRafael Cerqueira

By target zone

60% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

75% acc · 50%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rounds

even

Rafael Cerqueira rounds

Round 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 10

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

60%

Sig Str %

11 / 16

Total Strikes

0 / 1

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Cerqueira	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	6 / 10	11 / 16	1 / 1	1

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3

Rafael Cerqueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4