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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev won · Submission R1

Elo1564

Elo1440

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevvsBrendson RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev won

Submission · Round 1 · 2:52

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev at -2000 American odds · hypothetical only

+$5 profit

$105 total returned

Model Prediction: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev wins(89.7%)

Actual result: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev has 79pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Red Corner

Brendson Ribeiro

Blue Corner

-2000

(95%)

Vegas Odds

+900

(10%)

1564

Elo

1440

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Cerqueira · Nov 25

KOvs Julius Walker · Jun 26

latest

Brendson RibeiroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Caio Machado · Nov 24

SUBvs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Jun 25

KOvs Oumar Sy · Sep 25

DECvs Magomed Tuchalov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevMetricBrendson Ribeiro

7.40

Strikes / min

3.04

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

57%

Strike defense

53%

11.49

TDs / 15 min

0.85

100%

Takedown defense

21%

7.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+5.10Δ 5.97 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevBrendson Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev(3 fights)Brendson Ribeiro(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.8|Blue -123.8

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +4.2|Blue -4.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevTargetBrendson Ribeiro

By target zone

43% acc · 86%

Head

38% acc · 63%

100% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

27% acc · 43%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rounds

even

Brendson Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:56

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 15

Sig Strikes

8 / 17

46%

Sig Str %

47%

23 / 38

Total Strikes

8 / 17

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendson Ribeiro	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	7 / 15	23 / 38	2 / 3	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Odds

-2000

Market-implied probability

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 90%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (model pick · research)$105

Brendson Ribeiro$1000

90% market-implied · model 58% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3

Brendson Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights8