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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ronny Markes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1353

Aaron SimpsonvsRonny MarkesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Ronny Markes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAaron Simpson: WrestlervsRonny Markes: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ronny Markes wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Ronny Markes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronny Markes at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aaron Simpson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ronny Markes has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Simpson

Red Corner

Ronny Markes

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1490

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron Simpson

oldest →

vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11

vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12

KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12

latest

Ronny MarkesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Karlos Vemola · Aug 11

vs Andrew Craig · Jan 13

KOvs Yoel Romero · Nov 13

KOvs Thiago Santos · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron SimpsonMetricRonny Markes

3.60

Strikes / min

2.17

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.43

56%

Strike defense

45%

3.78

TDs / 15 min

3.13

83%

Takedown defense

100%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aaron SimpsonRonny Markes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Ronny Markes(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.2|Blue -137.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron SimpsonTargetRonny Markes

By target zone

56% acc · 62%

Head

46% acc · 45%

85% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 6%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

97% acc · 48%

By position

51% acc · 44%

Distance

51% acc · 58%

93% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

78% acc · 33%

Ground

92% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aaron Simpson rounds

even

Ronny Markes rounds

Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control1:28

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Ronny Markes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:55

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 3Ronny Markes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:05

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 84

Sig Strikes

62 / 97

65.7%

Sig Str %

63.3%

75 / 104

Total Strikes

78 / 115

0 / 5

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:28

Ctrl Time

5:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ronny Markes	23 / 38	24 / 39	0 / 1
1	Aaron Simpson	32 / 46	36 / 50	0 / 1
2	Ronny Markes	22 / 31	28 / 38	1 / 2
2	Aaron Simpson	10 / 13	19 / 22	0 / 2
3	Ronny Markes	17 / 28	26 / 38	1 / 3
3	Aaron Simpson	13 / 25	20 / 32	0 / 2

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Ronny Markes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5