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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Mike Pierce won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1490
Elo1356

Aaron SimpsonvsMike PierceUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · Friday, October 5, 2012Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pierce won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:29

Style matchupAaron Simpson: WrestlervsMike Pierce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Aaron Simpson wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Mike Pierce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Simpson at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Simpson
Red Corner
VS
Mike Pierce
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1490
Elo
1356
52
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron Simpson
oldest →
W
vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11
W
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11
W
vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11
L
vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12
W
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12
latest
Mike PierceL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha · Jun 12
W
vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12
W
KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13
L
SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron SimpsonMetricMike Pierce
3.60
Strikes / min
2.62
2.53
Strikes absorbed / min
2.36
56%
Strike defense
62%
3.78
TDs / 15 min
3.08
83%
Takedown defense
71%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.07evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1521 vs 1546Strikes42.6 vs 39.4Takedowns3.1 vs 2.7Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.33Form0.5 vs 0.2
Aaron SimpsonMike Pierce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Mike Pierce(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.3|Blue -134.3
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -33.0|Blue +33.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron SimpsonTargetMike Pierce

By target zone

23
72% acc · 82%
Head
8
42% acc · 80%
4
36% acc · 14%
Body
1
100% acc · 10%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
1
100% acc · 10%

By position

10
50% acc · 36%
Distance
6
40% acc · 60%
14
70% acc · 50%
Clinch
2
50% acc · 20%
4
100% acc · 14%
Ground
2
100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Aaron Simpson rounds
0
even
1
Mike Pierce rounds
Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control0:46
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:07Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Mike Pierce edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
28 / 44
Sig Strikes
10 / 21
44.5%
Sig Str %
53%
50 / 72
Total Strikes
21 / 32
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 2
100%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:46
Ctrl Time
1:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mike Pierce5 / 1416 / 250 / 20
1Aaron Simpson27 / 3949 / 671 / 11
2Mike Pierce5 / 75 / 70 / 00
2Aaron Simpson1 / 51 / 50 / 00

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12