Middleweight

3 Rounds

Mark Munoz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Aaron SimpsonvsMark MunozUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Mark Munoz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAaron Simpson: WrestlervsMark Munoz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Aaron Simpson wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Mark Munoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Simpson at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aaron Simpson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Simpson

Red Corner

Mark Munoz

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aaron Simpson

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11

vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11

vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12

KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12

latest

Mark Munoz

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13

KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13

SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14

SUBvs Roan Carneiro · Feb 15

vs Luke Barnatt · May 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aaron SimpsonMetricMark Munoz

3.60

Strikes / min

3.12

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.26

56%

Strike defense

57%

3.78

TDs / 15 min

3.17

83%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07evenly matched on net striking+0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aaron SimpsonMark Munoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Mark Munoz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +43.0|Blue -43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aaron SimpsonTargetMark Munoz

By target zone

23% acc · 49%

Head

34% acc · 46%

75% acc · 42%

Body

83% acc · 25%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

76% acc · 29%

By position

32% acc · 63%

Distance

38% acc · 38%

47% acc · 33%

Clinch

58% acc · 57%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

80% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aaron Simpson rounds

even

Mark Munoz rounds

Round 1Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:23

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control0:52

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 118

Sig Strikes

76 / 156

36%

Sig Str %

49.3%

70 / 146

Total Strikes

92 / 174

5 / 11

TDs

1 / 4

44.3%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:15

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark Munoz	23 / 47	25 / 49	0 / 1
1	Aaron Simpson	13 / 39	23 / 49	1 / 4
2	Mark Munoz	24 / 41	30 / 49	1 / 2
2	Aaron Simpson	13 / 41	16 / 44	3 / 4
3	Mark Munoz	29 / 68	37 / 76	0 / 1
3	Aaron Simpson	17 / 38	31 / 53	1 / 3

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Mark Munoz

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12